NHL Totals Documentation
Technical reference for the NHL Game Totals prediction model—goaltender-adjusted projections for over/under markets.
Frequently Asked Questions
How do you project NHL game totals?
We combine team Goals For and Goals Against per 60 minutes at 5v5, power play efficiency, penalty kill rates, and goaltender-specific adjustments to project expected combined scoring.
Why does goaltender matter so much?
Starting goalie can swing expected goals by 0.5+ per game. We adjust projections based on confirmed starter, their recent save percentage, and historical performance against the opponent.
How do back-to-backs affect projections?
Teams on back-to-back games typically see reduced performance, especially the second game. We model fatigue impact on both scoring and goaltending.
What about special teams?
Power play and penalty kill efficiency significantly impact totals. We weight recent special teams performance and adjust for opponent discipline (penalties taken/drawn).
How do you handle overtime?
NHL totals include overtime and shootout goals. We factor in each team's historical overtime performance and adjust probabilities accordingly.
Why fewer NHL picks than NBA?
NHL has higher variance and fewer games. We only surface picks with sufficient edge—quality over quantity.
Methodology
Projection Pipeline
Calculate Goals For and Goals Against per 60 minutes at 5v5, adjusted for score state and opponent strength.
Apply starter-specific save percentage adjustments based on recent form and historical matchup data.
Factor in power play efficiency, penalty kill rates, and expected penalty differential.
Apply back-to-back, travel, and rest day factors that affect performance.
Data Inputs
- •5v5 Goals For/Against per 60 minutes
- •Power play and penalty kill efficiency
- •Starting goaltender confirmation
- •Goaltender save percentage (recent + season)
- •Schedule and travel context
Quality Filters
Same four-gate system as all Optiqal models:
- ✓EV threshold exceeded
- ✓Projection confidence (σ threshold)
- ✓Odds floor (-200 max)
- ✓Breakeven buffer met
Operations
Lock Time
NHL Totals picks lock at 10:00 AM ET daily. Starting goaltenders are typically confirmed by this time for most games.
CLV Tracking
We track closing line value for all totals picks. NHL lines can move significantly after goalie confirmations.