CS2 Moneyline Documentation
Complete technical reference for the Counter-Strike 2 Moneyline prediction model—methodology, edge detection, and operational details.
Frequently Asked Questions
How are team ratings calculated?
Elo-style ratings that update based on match results, opponent strength, and margin of victory. Ratings decay over time to account for roster changes.
Why tournament tier matters?
S-Tier events (Majors, top LANs) carry more weight than online qualifiers. Teams perform differently under high-stakes conditions.
How handle roster changes?
Significant roster changes trigger rating adjustments. New rosters start with blended ratings based on individual player histories.
What is Bo1 vs Bo3 adjustment?
Best-of-1 matches have higher variance than Bo3/Bo5. We adjust win probabilities to account for format-specific upset potential.
Why LAN vs online distinction?
Some teams overperform on LAN due to crowd energy and bootcamp preparation. Others struggle with travel and pressure. We model this explicitly.
What events are covered?
Major tournaments, top-tier LANs, and significant online leagues. Lower-tier matches are excluded due to limited data reliability.
How is data quality scored?
Each pick includes a data quality score based on team history depth, recent form stability, and roster continuity.
What does edge percentage mean?
The gap between our model probability and the implied market probability. Higher edge = larger detected mispricing.
How validate model accuracy?
Long-term ROI tracking, CLV analysis, and performance by tournament tier. All metrics are publicly displayed.
Methodology
Team Rating System
Each team maintains a dynamic Elo-style rating that updates based on match results. The system accounts for:
Tournament Tier System
Not all matches carry equal significance. We weight results by tournament importance:
Match Format Adjustments
Different formats have different variance profiles:
- •Best-of-1: High variance, map pick/ban crucial, upset potential elevated
- •Best-of-3: Standard format, balanced skill expression, most reliable predictions
- •Best-of-5: Low variance, favors deeper map pools, skill differential magnified
LAN vs. Online
Venue type significantly affects performance:
- •LAN advantages: Some teams thrive under crowd pressure and bootcamp preparation
- •Online advantages: Home comfort, no travel fatigue, familiar setup
- •Ping considerations: Cross-regional online matches introduce latency factors
Edge Detection & Filtering
Pick Selection Criteria
Strict filtering ensures only high-quality edges are released:
Data Quality Framework
Quality Scoring System
Each pick includes a data quality score (0-100) indicating projection confidence:
Pick Lock Timing
8-Hour Lock Window
CS2 picks are locked and published 8 hours before match start. This timing ensures:
Performance Tracking
Validation Metrics
All picks are tracked with full transparency: