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Model Documentation
UFC Models
Comprehensive fight outcome predictions powered by advanced fighter analysis and matchup modeling.
Available Models
UFC Model Overview
Our UFC model analyzes fight outcomes through comprehensive fighter evaluation and matchup analysis. Key principles include:
- 1.Fighter Rating System - We maintain skill ratings that update based on fight outcomes, opponent quality, and performance metrics.
- 2.Style Matchup Analysis - Different fighting styles interact in complex ways. We model how striker vs. grappler, counter-fighter vs. pressure fighter, and other style matchups affect outcomes.
- 3.Physical Attributes - Reach, height, and weight class advantages are factored into predictions with appropriate weighting.
- 4.Edge Detection - Picks are only released when model probability significantly exceeds implied market probability, ensuring positive expected value.
Methodology
Confidence Tiers
Picks are categorized into tiers based on edge magnitude and model confidence. Higher tier picks have larger detected edges and receive higher unit recommendations.
Performance Tracking
All picks are tracked with locked odds at time of release. We measure closing line value (CLV) and actual profit/loss to continuously validate model accuracy.
Event Coverage
The model covers UFC numbered events, Fight Night cards, and select international promotions. Picks are typically released 24-48 hours before event start.