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Model Documentation
Tennis Models
Deep-dive into the methodology, edge detection, and operational details for our Tennis prediction models.
Available Models
Tennis Totals
Match total games predictions for ATP and WTA tours using serve statistics.
Key Features
- Serve & hold percentage modeling
- Surface-specific adjustments
- Bo3 vs Bo5 format handling
- Tour-specific parameters (ATP/WTA)
Tennis Moneyline
Match winner predictions using surface-weighted Elo ratings for ATP and WTA.
Key Features
- Surface-specific Elo ratings
- Line shopping across books
- ATP & WTA tour coverage
- Grand Slam & tournament support
Tennis Model Overview
Our Tennis models analyze match totals using player-specific serve statistics and historical performance data from Jeff Sackmann's comprehensive tennis databases:
- 1.Serve & hold analysis - Player-specific serve point win percentage and service game hold rates determine expected game distribution.
- 2.Surface adjustments - Hard, clay, and grass courts have different hold rates and tiebreak frequencies built into projections.
- 3.Tour-specific modeling - ATP and WTA tours have different baseline serve statistics reflecting the pace and style differences.
- 4.Format detection - Automatically detects Best of 3 vs Best of 5 matches (Grand Slam ATP events use Bo5).