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Model Documentation
NBA Models
Deep-dive into the methodology, edge detection, and operational details for our NBA prediction models.
Available Models
NBA Props
Player prop predictions for points, rebounds, assists, and combo props.
Key Features
- Player-specific variance modeling
- Real-time injury adjustments
- Usage redistribution calculations
- Fat-tail probability corrections
NBA Totals
Game total (over/under) predictions based on team pace and efficiency.
Key Features
- Pace-adjusted projections
- Team efficiency modeling
- Rest and schedule factors
- Historical matchup analysis
NBA Model Overview
Our NBA models are built on a foundation of comprehensive data collection, advanced statistical modeling, and rigorous backtesting. Key principles include:
- 1.Per-100 possession normalization - We use pace-adjusted metrics to compare teams and players fairly across different game tempos.
- 2.Player-specific variance - Each player has unique volatility patterns. We model individual variance rather than applying generic assumptions.
- 3.Real-time adjustments - Injuries, rest, and matchup factors are incorporated dynamically before picks lock.
- 4.Four-gate filtering - Every pick must pass EV threshold, projection confidence, odds floor, and breakeven buffer tests.